The quarter ending June 2018 ushered in the end of another financial year. The last year was for us in the profession, certainly a story of two halves.
July 2017 to Dec 2017 saw strong market returns led mainly by the US tax cuts - Nice one President Trump! Then, Jan 2018 to June 2018 was a bit more bumpy with concerns over trade wars and real wars - Thanks a lot President Trump!
What then about the forecast for the year ahead? As long as we have a volatile leader, leading the economic power house that is the USA, markets will be volatile. But thats not all bad, as we have seen with the US company tax rates things can certainly go well and the returns for the financial year have been surprisingly good.
The US economy is still going well and this is still the best guide to how markets and therefore your returns will eventuate. A strong US is good for us all as they are still the most important part of the global economy. We are being realistic though, the US growth we have seen over the last few years may be maturing and may stagnate. In fact, a Flattening of the Yield Curve (click here for a definition) does suggest the good times may be slowing....
Regarding our portfolios, we have made no changes recently regarding either the asset allocation or the underlying fund managers. I recently toured Melbourne Airport, which is owned by an Infrastructure Fund I was considering using for our portfolios. I decided against it as this stage, but will certainly consider moving to an overweight position in Property and Infrastructure should inflation increase here in Australia, then ownership of 'Real Assets' such as airports can be beneficial.
And for an update on the performance and asset allocation, please click below on the factsheets.
High Growth Factsheet